The Foxhole Reloaded... Again!

General Belgrano (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARA_General_Belgrano)

QuoteShe was sunk on 2 May 1982 during the Falklands War by the Royal Navy submarine Conqueror with the loss of 323 lives. Losses from General Belgrano totaled just under half of Argentine military deaths in the war.

Yep, that was the first ship sunk by torpedo since WW2... Pete. The Soleimani is just the second one. I hope your ego will recover. I know you're just a simple guy who don't really care much about history and everything naval must go way over your head but try to hire an aide-de-camp to check facts next time, before you ridicule yourself on the world stage. The Royal Navy had a good laugh though, so there's that.

This is just a little jab because Pete Hegseth seems to have stumbled into the most common trap that a part of Americans (small but so vocal that it seems there are millions of them) stumbled into on the internet, US "default-ism", which is the belief that everything in the world is linked to the US, one way or another and that every "first" in the world is of course US. I don't know if it was voluntary from Hegseth or if he just forgot to say "sunk by the US Navy since WW2", but there you go. When you are Secretary of "War" (whatever), you have to have certain standards when addressing the public at large. Mistakes and distortions of the truth coming from an everyday American are embarrassing, but coming from the US administration, it's plainly unacceptable.


Reasons for a war

There have been many reasons given for the current war with Iran during the past week, some credible, some not, some that belong to the realm of fantasy and some that are downright insane and dangerous (https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=4408635726051980). Yep, Trump has been anointed by God to herald the second coming of Jesus Christ. How stupid is that!!? If I hadn't heard that from the mouth of a US Congressman, I wouldn't believe it. In fact I first heard of it a couple of days ago stumbling on the video of an American Anglican priest that was ringing the alarm bell. Because that kind of stuff doesn't belong in the US military or any democracy military for that matter. And himself learned it from the reports issued by pissed off US military personnel from all faiths (Christian, Jewish, Islamic...) to basically say that they didn't sign up to hear this crap. However the whole thing seemed so unbelievable to me that I put it out of my mind. And then today, I found this US Congressman telling us that yes, there is a whole biblical narrative going on in the military, propagated by some officers.

I don't know from where this utter lunacy originated, knowing Trump I wouldn't be surprised to hear that he got the ball rolling himself, but this is very dangerous not only for the security of the US but every US ally out there. This is a problem that needs to get nipped in the bud, the sooner the better. And those officers involved need to be removed immediately because they don't represent the best interests of the US military any longer. If they are able to come with that utter crap, who knows what else they do when no one is looking. I want to believe that this congressman is right and that the problem will be taken care of, but I still can't believe that something like that is even happening, today, in the US military.

It's just insane. And when you hear that kind of insane justification of the "God told me" persuasion for a war you get to one conclusion: there is no justification, at least not one rooted in reality.

By the way, the second coming of the Christ is supposed to happen at the end of times according to the interpretation of most theologians... Armageddon, you know, apocalypse? Ironically this is a belief common to both Christians and Islam.

So according to those officers, Trump is there to trigger the end of the world. I am SO glad we cleared that up! I always wondered why he was always behaving like a lunatic, but no, I was mistaken! He has a plan! Destroying the world to invite the return of Jesus Christ and as one of the guys who has the most gigantic stockpile of nuclear weapons at his disposal, he certainly could.

Guys I wish I was joking, there. But watch out! We have entered the realm of the unreal, the abyss of the unfathomable, the Twilight Zone. Oooooh. Edgar Poe would be proud. If tomorrow someone tells me that aliens are going to land in Greenland in three hours to save the day, offer us the means to unlimited energy and peaceful coexistence forever... I'm done! Even though benevolent aliens bringing peace and prosperity would still be more believable to me than Trump being "anointed by God"!

Now we have to confront the real possibility that the whole US administration is ripe for a long stay in a padded cell. At the very least, some officers in the US military are.

And the fact that according to Wikipedia:

QuoteA 2010 survey showed that about 40% of Americans at the time believed that Jesus is likely to return by 2050. This varied from 58% of white evangelical Christians, through 32% of Catholics to 27% of white mainline Protestants.

Is not filling me with much confidence... I wonder what the percentage is now. Maybe it's better to ignore. Ignorance is bliss as they say...

But let's get away from the Armageddon stuff and go back to some of the more well, "plausible" reasons for this war.


The Big Circus

Thing is the Trump's Administration and Trump himself keep changing the narrative from day to day, press conference to press conference and sometimes from hour to hour. That's without counting the possible reasons that the administration doesn't give, like distracting the public from the Epstein's files, from the war in Ukraine to open a path for Trump's best pal Putin whom by the way will certainly benefits from the hike in oil prices if we don't manage to keep the straight of Hormuz opened.

First and let's be clear about that: bombs alone never won a war; planes alone never won a war; ships alone, never won a war. All those methods have been tried in other wars and none of them worked. Bombs, planes, ships are all useful tools but alone they don't achieve policy.

But to even achieve something, you need to have a clear vision of what you want to achieve. Each war has a beginning and an end state. The end state is what you want to see after the last bomb has been dropped and the smoke clears. And this is where the Trump's Administration is singularly lacking. No one in there seems to have a consistent idea of what they want to achieve. I'm sure Israel knows what "it" wants to achieve, but apparently it didn't communicate that information to its American "ally".

Regime change was one the first reason invoked, both by the US and Israel.

Thing is you don't get a regime change just by bombing a country and telling the population, "now, grab the power"! Doesn't work that way. I mean, if it did Trump would have been removed from power six months ago. Why would you expect anything different from Iran and its ultra fanatic government and scared population. If you want regime change in Iran, then you have to get boots on the ground. And that's something unrealistic as far as Israel is concerned (I don't see them stop protecting their state to invade Iran, and they certainly expect the US to take charge of the ground part of the war if there ever is one). It would be politically suicidal for Trump as he was elected with the understanding, among his MAGA fanbase, that there would be no boots on the ground anywhere... But he also promised that there would be no more wars and that Americans wouldn't die in stupid wars on foreign soil under his watch... oops.

So, regime change... not happening. Unless Trump decides, against all odds, to put boots on the ground, the thing being, Iran is not Iraq. Look at a map, about three times the size, three times the population and religious fanatics as the directing force, people who happily go to die in combat with a little key around their neck to open the door to paradise. They don't fear death, they fear disappointing God. There was no fanatic (or very little) among the Iraqi forces which is why they surrendered fast enough. True, maybe not all the military of Iran is like that but the ones who are are pretty hardcore. So losses there would be, on both sides, and the whole affair would be a sluggish match to achieve control of the country. After which and IF the US won, then yeah, sure, there could be a regime change.

But truly are Americans that eager to send their sons and daughters die in another war to do what? Switch leaders in a country that most Americans don't even care about. We all know that the current Iranian government is bad. Every Western country, Germany, France and the UK included have had to pay the price in blood of Islamist terrorism that more often than not has been promoted by Iran. We all know that. But there's a time and place to embark in that kind of venture. We have a 4 years old ongoing war in Europe (in its fifth year now), we are in the process of rearming our military and the US would like us to abandon everything, weaken our defenses just to happily go and bash on Iran regime? How realistic is that?

So sorry, but I'm afraid the coalition this time will just be the US and Israel.

They were going to attack us so we had to strike first.

Another weird reason. "Negotiations weren't going anywhere and we felt that they were going to attack us so we had to attack them first". According to Marco Rubio. You "felt"? And I guess that the intelligence about an imminent attack was coming directly from the Mossad or the Aman, right? Just a guess. Remember when you tried to drag France in Iraq in 2003 on the basis of some doctored satellite images showing WMDs where there were none? Well, Israel is the master of that kind of stuff. Their intelligence services are some if not the best intelligence services on the planet and manipulation, misdirection, redirection is the top of their game. I happily give them that. In their position as a country it has always been vital for their survival. They are grade A++ in this stuff.

Point is, it's not because an ally tells you something that it is true. The US taught that to France in 2003 and I think Israel may have been teaching that to the US a few days ago except that the bait was swallowed. France didn't in 2003 just because we cared about checking the facts ourselves and discovered the lie. The US administration schooled by superior Israeli minds? Maybe not what happened, I'm largely conjecturing there, but if anything, it's food for thoughts.

In fine, the whole theory about an imminent attack from Iran is unverifiable until some evidence is provided. I'm sure that Israel could come up with something, hopefully not another set of doctored satellite images because that's getting old...

Disarming Iran, Removing nuclear capabilities

Well, those are the only reasons I have heard so far that are worth something. How much of that can be achieved is a whole other matter. The US didn't manage to kill Iran leadership, not entirely -- someone is still giving the orders, that's a certainty, and now the US doesn't even know who as it eliminated pretty much anyone that was deemed important. So what happens right now, is everyone bombing happily every part of Iran hoping to kill what remains of the leadership by sheer luck? Are they going for the missiles stockpiles, the nuclear installations? And then what? Supposing that Israel and the US manage to "de-fang", so to speak, Iran. What happens next? Oh yes, we already know, as Trump said "Don't worry about what happens next"

Bravo! Excellent plan! Leave a country in ruin with a people that won't know what to do or even have anything to rebuild their essential infrastructure, you know... gas, water, electricity, food production... This is the end state wanted? Really? I won't be even surprised if this is the end state wanted by Israel, they don't really care about what happens to the Iranian people after. But the US? I thought you were better than that.

Or is Trump buying into that whole "I'm anointed by God" narrative that surfaced? So much that he would be willing to pull the nuclear trigger? Hey that would be a reason to tell people "Don't worry about what happens next".

Difficult to say these days...

Anyway, if the end state is not just total annihilation, if the US wants to help the Iranian people to rebuild their country when it's over in such a way that it won't be a threat for other countries, then guess what... you'll have to have boots on the ground, not only to help the population but also to check that the missiles and nuclear facilities are, this time, completely out of commission. Those are not things that a ship or a plane or a drone can do. So this is another scenario that implies boots on the ground, in a country where there will potentially be still some operational terrorist cells hidden and survivors of the regime around.

I really think this US administration isn't thinking things through.

But what else is new with Trump?

Anyway, I'm only really guessing and putting down ideas there because... curious minds want to know.  The Middle East is a complex region where any little thing can prove destabilizing and create a big bang.

Iran itself is a complex country, a very old and proud country with a proud people and many factions. Starting a war with it... you know when it begins you never know when and how it will end. This is the main reason why most of the world wanted to achieve a diplomatic solution here instead of a military one. But since the US and Israel threw that option out the window... all bets are off. Now there are many ways to make the situation in the country and the region way worse and just a few to make it better. The only thing we can be certain at that point is that people are dying every hour, and a lot of them just wanted to live peaceful lives.