The Middle East... again

[Starfox]

You know, it's amusing because Trump adore the idea of spheres of influence but look at a map. What can be geographically further from America than the Middle East? It's not like Iranian missiles could reach any part of the US, they don't even have ICBMs. So according to Trump himself, the Middle East is none of the US concerns. And still, as always, the US meddle in the middle, forgetting that their allies (most of them in Europe) are much closer to that middle than they ever will be. Did Trump stop and ask himself about the interests of his allies before launching operation "flaming balls"... uh, no, "Atrocious Angels", not that either... "Fuck Me"? Wait, I'm looking it up... oh yeah "Epic Fury"? No, he did not, not a single second. Why? First because he doesn't care and second because... Israel was asking nicely.

Israel... here's a country with definitely very good motivations to go and declare war on Iran. And the US decided to follow their lead and nod along. Yeah, you heard that right, the one that is controlling this war is Israel, not the US. The US is just doing what it has been doing best since WW2, dropping bombs. That would certainly explain why the US administration has so much difficulties currently explaining, to their own people, what is happening, why, what is the final goal pursued and when it could be expected to be over. No instead of that you get Hegseth saying aggressively that he won't be talking about anything going on, except for saying that "We will find the bad guys and kill them" (which is teenage level chest pounding to say "I don't know anything so why do you ask me?") and Trump affirming that he had to force Israel's hand to follow the US.

Really? Are we talking about the same Israel which has always wanted to go and blow Iranian stuff for the past 50 years? In fact I can remember at least one previous US Administration telling them: "Do not do that! Or we'll stop selling you all the shiny toys that go BOOM!". But obviously Trump has a very bad memory. After all he is the one convinced that his father was born in Germany (and Mertz just beside him was smiling faintly, thinking "No, he wasn't. I'd certainly remember if your father was German").

In fact Trump's memory is not just bad, it is completely gone. For example when he said that the US would use airbases in Spain even if the Spanish do not agree. Well, big surprise, the only reason why the US is allowed to have bases in Europe is because of... NATO, the same NATO that Trump says is completely useless, so the US can do without European bases, right? "But.. but..., going from Spain to Iran is so much easier". Well too bad.

Another thing that Trump forgot, unless he never knew. There was a reason why Israel was never invited to participate in "Desert Storm" (they really should have called it "Epic Storm From Hell", too bad Trump's team wasn't there back then) or to be a part of Iraq 2003 or the operations in Afghanistan. In fact, the US downright "discouraged" (OK, let's say it as it really was "forbade") Israel from participating in those operations. Why exactly? Well that wasn't a big mystery for anyone, especially not several US administrations that, unlike the current one, didn't have "shit for brains". When you are about to conduct military operations against or on the territory of a Muslim country, the last thing you want is to bring Israel to the party, the arch-Nemesis of all the Arab world. It's like purposely painting a target on your back for every Islamist out there, even the non radical or fanatic ones. And obviously that was something the "old" USA wanted to avoid at all cost because, why complicate things for yourself?

But apparently the new USA is not like that. No, the new USA has balls because they go to war against Iran and what is the only country they decide to ally with for that purpose? The one that everyone and their parents truly hate in the area, even when they don't say it out loud, the arch-Nemesis of all the Arab world, Israel. I don't know if Trump tried to drag Europe in this conflict before going for it but I can imagine the response from European countries. "With Israel as an ally? Are you fucking insane? Hell NO!"

==== History time!!

A bit of history here. Do you know who was Israel's main arm provider until 1967, especially for jets?

Buzz... the US!... Wrong
Buzz... the UK!... Wrong
Buzz... OK, I know that sounds stupid but... France?... We have a winner!

Yep, France sold all kind of stuff to Israel back in the days, particularly the excellent Mirage III until... well, until 1967 when the French government realized that mainly all the stuff sold to Israel wasn't used to defend their right to exist as a nation (which France fully supported) but rather to aggress and seize territory from their neighbors (by the way, 1967 was the year of the largest expansion of Israel's territory in the whole history of Israel, partly thanks to French military stuff). As France couldn't condone expansion by aggression and as Israel was reluctant to abandon its ways, France  decided to close the bar. Then Israel created the Nesher and the Kfir respectively their versions of the Mirage III and V (the Mirage V that they just bought but never fully received due to the brutal stop of arm sales, Mirage V that was originally a special order from Israel -- they wanted the same performance as the Mirage III but with more range and A-G capabilities), and then they started to buy American as, for some reason, the US weren't really interested in what the stuff was used for. "Oh, you want to bash your Arab neighbors? Go for it little buddies. We don't really care, as long as you're buying."

France lost an export market and a close ally willingly because of moral divergences. What happened next though took even France by surprise because this wasn't intended. Arab countries started to like France a lot more than they previously did just because France took a stance against the aggressive nature of Israel. They also started to like the US a lot less because they started to sell arms to Israel. That taught us a very interesting lesson about the Middle East. Israel is not perceived as a natural or historical player in the region, it is perceived as an intruder and for some Arab countries (to not say most) as a country that shouldn't even exist, that was artificially created in 1948 by western powers, mainly by the UK (although in agreement with other Western powers) seizing territory from Palestine (which was an UK protectorate back then) and giving that land to the Jews to form Israel with the (quite stupid in hindsight) understanding that the Jews would be content with that territory and never try to increase it. Well, surprise, they did increase it, by a lot.

Not that I pin all responsibility for the current situation on Israel. After all, the reason why France started to sell weapons to Israel was because it was under attack by surrounding Arab countries and France believed that Israel had a right to defend itself. It's when Israel changed its stance from defense to aggression that things went sour between us.

=== End of history time

But why the history? Well, the only thing that you have to keep in mind from all that is: if you are a country supporting Israel in any way, don't expect to have many friends in the Middle East. You may have some but even them will look at you with suspicion. And if you intend to go to war against say... Iran, don't bring Israel as a baggage unless you really want shit to hit the fan. Even worse, don't ever follow Israel into a war against an Arab country (which is difficult because find me a conflict involving Israel that wasn't with an Arab country -- well, I guess Iran qualifies as it is not an Arab country).

Point is, there's nothing better than Israel to push Arab nations and more generally nations of the Middle East to overcome their differences.

There is a relevant story doing the rounds currently. A few days ago, 3 American F15E were downed by what was believed to be friendly fire from a Patriot missile battery operated by the Kuwaiti (so an allied country). And well, that version of the story was credible, after all there were a lot of Iranian missiles and drones incoming and in the "fog of war" -- so dear to Pete Hegseth who seems to use that to explain away virtually anything, including war crimes -- the Kuwaiti may have mistakenly identified the three jets as hostile. That version of the story could fit except that the images told a different story (damn smartphones). In particular no one could understand why the explosions weren't bigger and why the jets weren't instantly destroyed. Patriot missiles aren't known for their finesse. They embark a shitload of explosives (typically in excess of 80 Kg for the older versions) and when they go it's a big boom. What the images showed was more like 10kg of explosive the kind of damage that an AA missile could do. It downs a plane, yes, but it doesn't obliterate it and as a matter of fact the crews of the three planes managed to eject with their lives and all of that doesn't fit the description of a Patriot strike.

Now some sources are talking about the incident not being the result of a Patriot strike but of the three planes being downed by a single Kuwaiti F/A-18 which would explain the images showing what appear to be AA missile damage. But that also means there is a huge problem there. Every fighter pilot I heard the past day said: "I hope this is not the case" but frankly everyone suspects it is. Because if those three planes were actually downed by one Kuwaiti pilot, it wasn't by accident. One plane would have been an accident, not three. It takes some time to target and shoot down a plane even with a Sidewinder and when you do, you're in visual range where you can definitely ID the plane. And during this time you'd realize your mistake, that you are actually engaging a friendly target. You wouldn't go ahead and engage the two other planes.

And if it was not just a normal friendly fire incident, then we have to confront the reality, it was a Kuwaiti pilot wanting to make widely known what he was thinking about this new war that includes Israel. This would be a big deal, much bigger than you'd think, so like the pilots I've heard I will say the same "I hope it's not the case" because otherwise that means that the US placed themselves in a smelting pot of troubles.

And with all that I haven't even reached the part where the US administration doesn't seem to have any plan or any strategic vision for this war (and yes, this is a war, if you want to call that a "special operation" go join Putin, he has some experience, 4 years later his "special operation" that should have lasted 15 days is still a thing). Because let's be clear "We're going to find the bad guys and kill them" is not a plan, it's just college talk for when you want to impress and screw your favorite cheerleader. By the way, Hegseth may be secretary of defense (sorry... WAR, now we know why they renamed it), he never has moved on from being a squad leader. Killing the enemy in front of him, that he can understand but overall strategy and seeing the big picture of a war... definitely not his strong suit seeing as he dodges even the simplest questions.

But I'm tired talking about all that so let's take a break...