Let me start with one famous quote written by a certain personage at the end of his life:

QuoteThere is no immortality but the memory that is left in the mind of men... To have lived without glory, without leaving a trace of one's own existence is to not have lived at all.

This quote is from the memoirs of Napoleon Bonaparte that he wrote during his stay in his last residence on Saint Helena. By that point, the former Emperor of the French was defeated, his empire erased but he knew he was still going to win a victory that many of his enemies would envy him for many decades to come, being on everyone's mind and therefore, live forever. For the most part, Napoleon, son a minor Corsican noble with a huge stack of ambition, military and political acumen, achieved what he set himself to do. Starting from nowhere and becoming someone. And he did that in a record time. Artillery Lieutenant at 16, Brigade General at 24, Commanding his first army at 26, winning his first military campaign (Italy) and defeating the Austrian Empire at 27/28, Becoming First Consul of the French Republic at 30 and Emperor at 35, exiled for the first time at 45, regaining his throne for the period known at the 100 days less than a year later, exiled again (much farther this time) the same year and dying at 51.

Of course, luck was on his side, he couldn't have accomplished all of that without the right set of historical circumstances. Without the French Revolution that cleared the way forward for him, for example, chances are that nobody would have even heard of him because his minor nobility status would have never allowed him to climb the ranks the way he did.

"I, Emperor" (video at the end of this post) is one of the most recent songs by the Swedish metal band Sabaton and explore an interesting topic... The song itself is about the historical Napoleon but the video present an alternate reality. What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo? Of course it's mainly a play on alternate history but it brings some interesting questions. Could Napoleon have won at Waterloo?

The short answer is yes. The simple fact that more than a third of the French troops (around 33,000 men) were going around cross country instead of being at Waterloo during the battle is enough to support the idea. Marshal Grouchy who was commanding those troops knew that the battle was raging (he was close enough to hear the shots), but, despite the insistence of his aide de camp, he refused to join in, preferring to follow the initial orders Napoleon gave him, several hours before the battle, which were to shadow the Prussian army and to prevent it from joining the British. Problem was, the Prussians Grouchy was following were not part of the main Prussian army but just a reconnaissance force of about 1,000 men. The Prussian army itself was heading for Waterloo with the consequences we know. At least Grouchy managed to catch up with and defeat the 1,000 men he was following, a day after Waterloo, with his 33,000 strong force which is a not a feat even worth remembering.

Had he decided to follow the advice of his aide-de-camp, "We should follow the cannonade", his 33,000 men would have been able to reach Waterloo at about the same time as the Prussians and at least delay the Prussian army long enough for Napoleon to finish the job at Waterloo because Wellington forces at that moment were on the verge of breaking. The fault however cannot be attributed to Grouchy alone. He could and should have redirected his force toward Waterloo but Napoleon also could and should have sent a messenger to Grouchy to order him to come back which he didn't. So it was a lack of initiative on Grouchy's side but also a lack of judgement on Napoleon's side or maybe overconfidence in the tactical ability and initiative of his Marshal.

Wellington was also well aware of his position as he stated himself after the facts. His worst nightmare would have been a full attack of the whole French army, that he was so unsure to be able to fend off that he had prepared evacuation plans before the battle for when things would go wrong. Winning Waterloo came quite as a surprise to him, especially because he didn't have that much luck in battle during the previous days and that, at least on paper, his forces were numerically inferior to the French.

In truth, Napoleon didn't like Wellington (but he didn't like most English officers; some more than others, and Wellington was not on his shit list unlike some others -- Admiral Sidney Smith comes to mind --, so it wasn't personal). However, Wellington was quite a fan of Napoleon, famously stating that his presence on a battlefield was equivalent to 40,000 men. Wellington was very critical of Napoleon's goals and rule but he never underestimated the military genius of the man. He also had an impressive collection of Napoleon's mementos and when a British journalist asked him after Waterloo who was the greatest General of all times (possibly expecting Wellington to answer "myself") the first name that came to Wellington's mind was "Napoleon". If there is one thing that Napoleon and Wellington didn't share, it was an over-inflated ego. Napoleon recognized the talents and qualities of other generals but he would never have put any of them above himself.

Now, if Napoleon had won at Waterloo, would that had changed anything? Originally, the only plan Napoleon had during the campaign of the 100 days was to defeat the allies of the Seventh coalition in a series of decisive battles that would have forced them to the negotiating table where he could have required to keep the control of France but without territory expansion (which was exactly what he had proposed when coming back from exile, a proposition that was vehemently rejected by the rulers of Europe who proceeded to declare war, not on France but on Napoleon, personally). His chances to obtain what he wanted, even with a series of brilliant and crushing military victories, were not good. The rest of Europe didn't want to see Napoleon anymore. They were afraid of him, they didn't trust him to keep his word and his return to power after his first exile had spooked them so much that they were not in the mood to leave him alone.

Winning at Waterloo might have bought Napoleon time; how much? Nobody can really say, but in the end the result would have probably been the same because the objective of Europe was to bring him down. Most likely, the only things that would have changed would have been the name and date of the final Battle.



Still, this music video is interesting, especially the ending.